what on earth is an 'agricultural census'?
how China’s rural data drives policies on farming, food security, and rural revitalisation
The recent announcement the Fourth National Agricultural Census invites a timely retrospective on the first three censuses and their profound influence on rural policy.
This upcoming census will be the first since the revised Statistics Law (2024) came into effect, aiming for improved data accuracy and transparency; an essential foundation given past issues around data integrity…
Let's take a look at why agricultural censuses matter, what previous rounds revealed, and what to expect from this fourth iteration.
Announced on 5 June 2025 and scheduled for 2026, the Fourth National Agricultural Census will guide immediate policy refinements and shape long-term agricultural modernisation and rural revitalisation strategies.
Although detailed census results won't fully inform the drafting of the 15th Five-year plan (2026–2030), preliminary insights may guide early policy adjustments.
Comprehensive census findings will strongly influence mid-term policy revisions within the 15th FYP and shape strategies for the 16th Five-year plan (2031–2035).
establishing foundations
The inaugural agricultural census (1997) provided the first comprehensive baseline for rural development.
It exposed over-reporting and inaccuracies in prior agri stats. In response, NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) revised key figures (such as herd sizes and crop output) downward after 1997, aligning official data with the census findings
This baseline data enabled targeted interventions across three crucial areas: land rights, tax reforms, and rural infrastructure.
By 1999, preliminary census results were submitted to the State Council and began informing targets in the then upcoming Tenth Five-year plan.
land tenure reform: extended rural land contracts to 30 years post-1997 census, supported by Rural Land Contracting Law in 2002 (revised in 2019)
agricultural tax abolition: rural per capita income grew from around C¥2,100 1997 to C¥4,760 by 2006
rural infrastructure: rural electrification improved from around 60% in 1997 to over 95% by early 2000s.
mechanisation: agricultural mechanisation rate increased from under 20% in 1997 to about 35% by the mid-2000s; Agricultural Mechanisation Promotion Law enacted in 2004 (revised in 2018)
Policy priorities shifted fundamentally post-census, exemplified by the landmark 2004 Central No.1 Document which explicitly focused on ‘三农’ issues (agriculture, rural areas, farmers), a thematic priority that has been reaffirmed annually since.
accelerating modernisation
The second census (2006) informed substantial expansions in rural social security, infrastructure, and agricultural modernisation initiatives.
It helped shape policies aimed at narrowing urban–rural gaps and structurally transforming rural livelihoods.
new socialist countryside initiative: census data accelerated rural infrastructure improvements, notably raising rural road connectivity from around 70% in 2006 to nearly 90% by 2010
land consolidation and rural land rights: addressed land fragmentation (average farm size from ~0.67 ha in 1997 to ~1 ha in 2006) by formally encouraging land transfers in 2008 and initiating nationwide rural land-rights confirmation in 2010
social security expansion: census insights prompted rapid expansion of rural healthcare coverage from ~10% in 2006 to over 90% by 2010 (New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme) and introduced basic pension coverage (New Rural Pension Scheme) from 2009
agricultural mechanisation and structural adjustment: highlighted insufficient mechanisation (~35% in 2006), driving targeted subsidies and support programs, boosting mechanisation to nearly 50% by 2016, alongside expanded support for farmer cooperatives and agricultural industrialisation via ‘Dragon Head Enterprises’
statistical reform: census uncovered significant inaccuracies (particularly in livestock statistics), prompting reform of livestock monitoring systems in 2009
The second census thus informed the 12th Five-year plan (2011–2015), refining targets for infrastructure, social welfare, and agricultural modernisation, building substantially on the first census's foundational baseline.
catalysing rural revitalisation
Conducted as Beijing elevated rural revitalisation to a national strategic priority, the third census (2016) provided precise empirical foundations for critical reforms in poverty alleviation, digital agriculture, rural governance, and demographic policies.
rural revitalisation strategy: census data shaped the landmark Rural Revitalisation Strategic Plan (2018–2022), precisely targeting village infrastructure improvements, rural industrial upgrading, and enhancing public services and governance structures.
targeted poverty alleviation: detailed census findings identified specific rural infrastructure and service gaps (e.g., housing, water access, healthcare), guiding the 2018–2020 Three-year Action Plan on Poverty Reduction. Census data validated ‘two assurances and three guarantees’ standards (food, clothing; education, healthcare, housing), supporting Beijing's declaration of a ‘complete victory’ over extreme poverty in 2021
digital agriculture and rural connectivity: the census highlighted rural internet penetration at approximately 40% (significantly below urban levels at that time), prompting accelerated digital agriculture initiatives. In response, policymakers launched extensive pilot programs for ‘Digital Villages’ from 2018 onwards, boosting rural e-commerce adoption, smart farming practices, and digital service delivery.
village governance and elderly care: census-demonstrated demographic challenges (over 17% rural residents aged 65+ in 2016, rising rapidly) spurred governance reforms and targeted rural elderly care pilots. From 2018 onward, authorities intensified grassroots governance reform (e.g., Revised Villagers’ Committee Organisation Law, 2018) and expanded pilot elderly care programs to address rapidly aging rural communities
land rights confirmation and scale farming: the census comprehensively documented widespread farmland transfers and growing professional farming entities (cooperatives, family farms), accelerating nationwide implementation of land-rights confirmation. This strengthened rural land tenure security, enabling more confident investment in productivity improvements and larger-scale operations.
The detailed data from the third census critically informed the rural-focused sections of the 14th Five-year plan (2021–2025), embedding clear quantitative targets for mechanisation, rural broadband penetration, elderly care expansion, and rural income improvements.
Moreover, this data is foundational to long-term strategic plans through 2035, cementing census-informed policymaking as essential for PRC rural transformation.
what's changed ahead of the 2026 census?
Beijing approaches its fourth agricultural census amid significant technological advancements, intensified demographic shifts, and mounting environmental pressures, enabling more comprehensive, digitally-enabled data collection than ever before.
positive developments
agricultural modernisation: the agri-tech contribution rate reached 63% by 2024, up from approximately 50% in 2016. Agricultural mechanisation rates exceed 75% in eastern provinces like Jiangsu and Shandong, but remain below 45% in western provinces such as Yunnan and Gansu, suggesting targeted regional subsidies will be essential post-census
food security and diversification: grain output reached a record 706.5 million tonnes in 2024, alongside expanded and diversified livestock and aquaculture production, bolstering overall food system resilience
digital agriculture: the national smart ag implementation plan (2024–28) targets establishing a national agricultural big data platform by 2028. Lays the groundwork for addressing uneven adoption (~30% nationally vs. 2030 goal over 50%).
areas of concern
rural aging: the population aged 60+ reached 22% nationally by 2024; rural areas are disproportionately impacted, with nearly 25% aged over 65. This demographic trend will likely accelerate investments in rural elderly-care infrastructure, expansions in social welfare coverage, and greater reliance on automation and robotics to mitigate rural labour shortages
urban–rural divide: rural disposable income stood at C¥7,003 in Q1 2025, approximately 45% of urban disposable income (C¥15,500), underscoring persistent and significant income disparities
environmental sustainability: agricultural water-use efficiency has seen only marginal improvements, with severe soil degradation and groundwater depletion remaining acute challenges in regions like the North China Plain. Recent initiatives, notably the national black soil protection project (2022–2025), highlight priority areas where intensified conservation and regulatory efforts will likely follow census results
focus areas for the 2026 census
agricultural production conditions: detailed assessment of land use, mechanisation, and evolving rural labour trends to inform targeted productivity measures
grain and diversified food production: comprehensive evaluation of grain crops, livestock, aquaculture, and forestry production, providing critical insights for food security and diversification policies
emerging agricultural productivity: survey of digital and smart agriculture adoption, pinpointing regional gaps to accelerate technological uptake and equitable agricultural modernisation
rural development fundamentals: regional analysis of infrastructure quality, rural industrial development, and effectiveness of village-level governance to refine place-specific rural revitalisation strategies
rural household living conditions: data-driven insights into income levels, consumption patterns, and quality-of-life metrics, explicitly highlighting persistent regional disparities requiring targeted interventions
anticipated policy refinements post-census
agricultural innovation support: increased region-specific investments in precision agriculture, biotechnology, and smart farming technologies, tailored explicitly to local productivity gaps and developmental potential
land use and tenure reforms: accelerated land consolidation and tenure security initiatives, aiming for average farm sizes of at least 2 hectares per household by 2035, carefully balancing environmental sustainability with enhanced agricultural productivity
rural revitalisation initiatives: expanded incentives for rural entrepreneurship, vocational training, and targeted employment programmes explicitly designed to narrow persistent urban–rural income disparities identified by census data
environmental conservation measures: enhanced environmental conservation initiatives, like those highlighted in the 2025 No.1 Document, with census findings expected to prompt strengthened interventions in water-use efficiency, soil restoration, biodiversity conservation, and the broader adoption of sustainable farming practices
Ultimately, the 2026 census will provide critical insights guiding China’s continued agricultural transformation and rural revitalisation. The data collected will not only inform targeted, region-specific policies but also help balance the complex interplay between productivity growth, demographic shifts, and environmental sustainability, shaping rural policy well into the next decade.
Let's just hope the 2026 census dodges the ag data shenanigans we've seen before. After all, credible rural policies grow from trustworthy numbers.